OpenAI's $25 Billion Ad Bet Could Change Everything

So OpenAI just posted a job listing that should make every marketer pay attention. They're hiring someone to build advertising infrastructure for ChatGPT. Not just any infrastructure—we're talking about the foundation for what could become the biggest disruption to digital advertising since... well, since Google.

And most people are sleeping on it.

The Writing's Been on the Wall

Look, I've been watching this play out for months. OpenAI is burning through $44 billion in total losses from 2023 to 2028 on their way to maybe turning a profit by 2029. Just this year alone, they're losing $5 billion on $3.7 billion in revenue. You think they're gonna keep ChatGPT free forever out of the goodness of their hearts?

Come on!

Their internal docs are already projecting $1 billion from "free user monetization" by 2026. That's corporate speak for "we're putting ads in this thing." And by 2029? They're banking on $25 billion from advertising. That's YouTube money, people.

But Here's Why This Is Different

Every other platform forces ads into your face. You're scrolling Instagram, BAM—shoe ad. You're searching Google, BAM—sponsored results at the top. You're watching YouTube, BAM—15-second unskippable nightmare about car insurance.

ChatGPT is different. When someone asks "What's the best laptop for video editing under $2000?" they're literally asking for product recommendations. They WANT you to sell them something. They just want you to be helpful about it.

That's not advertising. That's just really, really good customer service at scale.

The Numbers That Should Scare Everyone

ChatGPT hit 700 million weekly users. Seven. Hundred. Million. And they're driving serious traffic already:

• 21% of Walmart's traffic comes from ChatGPT

• 20% for Etsy

• 15% for Target

These aren't small numbers. This is "Google should be paying attention" territory.

When people start asking ChatGPT "where should I buy..." instead of Googling it, that's search ad revenue walking out the door. And it's happening right now.

What This Means for Us Marketers

First, the good news: early adopters are about to eat everyone's lunch. Remember the businesses that figured out Facebook ads in 2007? Or Google AdWords in 2002? Yeah, those people made a lot of money.

We're at that moment again.

The bad news? Everything you know about advertising is about to get flipped upside down. No more interrupting people. No more hoping your display ad gets noticed. No more praying your retargeting pixel fired correctly.

Instead, you're going to need to get really, really good at being genuinely helpful. Because if your brand gets recommended by ChatGPT, that's not just an impression—that's a trusted advisor telling someone to buy from you.

The Google Question Everyone's Asking

"Will this work with Google Ads?"

Short answer: probably, at first. OpenAI needs Google's advertiser base to kickstart this thing. They'll play nice initially.

Long answer: this is going to get messy. Google isn't going to sit around while ChatGPT eats their $160 billion search ad business. They're already working on their own conversational ad products.

We're heading headlong into an all-out war between the two biggest forces in AI, and advertising is the battlefield.

Why Most Agencies Will Screw This Up

Here's what's going to happen: agencies are going to treat ChatGPT advertising like just another Facebook or Google campaign. They'll try to shoehorn their old tactics into a fundamentally different platform.

And they'll fail spectacularly.

ChatGPT advertising isn't about clicks and impressions. It's about becoming the brand that an AI trusts enough to recommend. That requires a completely different approach to content, positioning, and customer education.

The agencies that figure this out first are going to absolutely dominate. The ones that don't... well, they'll be competing on price pretty soon.

What I'm Watching For

OpenAI hired Fidji Simo from Meta to run their applications business. You don't bring in someone who built one of the world's biggest ad platforms unless you're serious about building your own.

They're also building everything in-house instead of using existing ad tech. That tells me they think the current ecosystem is broken and they can do it better.

If they're right, we're not just getting a new advertising platform. We're getting a new model for how advertising should work.

The Bottom Line

This isn't just about ChatGPT getting ads. This is about the future of how people discover and buy products. We're moving from a world where you interrupt people with ads to a world where you earn recommendations from AI.

The companies that understand this shift first are going to have a massive advantage. The ones that keep thinking in terms of "campaigns" and "targeting" are going to get left behind.

So here's my question for you: what are you doing right now to make sure your brand is the one ChatGPT recommends?

Because ready or not, that future starts in 2026.

P.S. - If you're not already thinking about how AI will impact your marketing strategy, we should probably talk. This train is leaving the station whether you're on it or not.

Sources:

• Search Engine Land

• Adweek

• eMarketer

• CNBC

• Yahoo Finance

• Search Engine Land